莫里斯·阿萊斯，1911年5月31日生于法國(guó)巴黎，1931年進(jìn)入巴黎工學(xué)院。1933年，阿萊以全班第一名的成績(jī)畢業(yè)于巴黎工學(xué)院。之后進(jìn)入巴黎國(guó)家高級(jí)礦業(yè)學(xué)院學(xué)習(xí)工程學(xué)，并于1937年在國(guó)家礦產(chǎn)與采礦部開始了他的工程師生涯。

人物簡(jiǎn)介

姓名：莫里斯·阿萊斯

性別：男

出生年月:1911年生

籍貫：法國(guó)

第二十屆獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)吣锼埂ぐ⑷R——市場(chǎng)理論和最大效率理論的杰出貢獻(xiàn)者

人物經(jīng)歷

在學(xué)生時(shí)代，莫里斯·阿萊經(jīng)歷了1929～1933年的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和接踵而來的經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時(shí)期。基于對(duì)1929年大危機(jī)造成社會(huì)大災(zāi)難的憤怒和解決社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的熱情，他立志為市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中出現(xiàn)的若干問題找到解決辦法，并貢獻(xiàn)自己畢生的精力。由于具有工程學(xué)的背景，阿萊自學(xué)了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，并把數(shù)學(xué)的嚴(yán)密性引進(jìn)到當(dāng)時(shí)幾乎沒有定量分析的法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派中。

大學(xué)畢業(yè)后，莫里斯·阿萊當(dāng)上了礦業(yè)工程師。他決定發(fā)揮自己所學(xué)之專長(zhǎng)，先從礦業(yè)角度搞微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，然后逐步擴(kuò)大自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究領(lǐng)域。1943年，莫里斯·阿萊出版了第一部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專著《微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究》（兩卷），初步展示了他杰出的研究才能。1944年，莫里斯·阿萊才33歲，便成了巴黎國(guó)家高級(jí)礦業(yè)學(xué)院礦業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析的著名教授，并擔(dān)任法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)研究中心主任。接著，莫里斯·阿萊在學(xué)術(shù)界的地位蒸蒸日上，擔(dān)任的職務(wù)越來越多且越重要：1946年任巴黎國(guó)家高級(jí)礦業(yè)學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)和法國(guó)全國(guó)科學(xué)研究中心經(jīng)濟(jì)分析中心主任；1947年任巴黎大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)研究所理論經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授；1954年任法國(guó)全國(guó)科學(xué)研究中心主管研究工作的主任；1958～1959年任弗吉尼亞大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)客座教授；1967～1970年，他是瑞士日內(nèi)瓦國(guó)際問題研究生院的教授；自1970年后，他擔(dān)任了巴黎大學(xué)克萊芒-朱格拉高級(jí)貨幣分析研究室主任。阿萊曾服兵役一年。退伍以后，1940年7月他回到南茨仍然做礦業(yè)機(jī)關(guān)的負(fù)責(zé)人。1943年1月至1948年4月，他成為巴黎的礦業(yè)文獻(xiàn)和統(tǒng)計(jì)局局長(zhǎng)。

莫里斯·阿萊畢生致力于市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛心研究和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的教學(xué)工作。他在巴黎第十大學(xué)金融分析中心從事研究工作直至1980年退休。退休后，他一直堅(jiān)持經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的教學(xué)工作。1988年獲得諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)時(shí)，他雖已77歲，但身體健康，精力充沛，仍在巴黎國(guó)家高級(jí)礦業(yè)學(xué)院講授《金融行情分析基礎(chǔ)理論》。

阿萊“因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)理論和最大效率理論方面”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)所做出的貢獻(xiàn)，獲得1988年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)。他是第一個(gè)獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)的法國(guó)學(xué)者。

主要學(xué)術(shù)觀點(diǎn)

阿萊提出了許多市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，重新系統(tǒng)地闡述了一般經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡理論和最大效用理論。阿萊認(rèn)為，從瓦爾拉斯到德布魯?shù)囊话憔饽Ｐ途俣ㄒ粋€(gè)所有物品都集中在一起進(jìn)行交換的市場(chǎng)，而且市場(chǎng)價(jià)格對(duì)所有市場(chǎng)參加者都是共同的、給定的，然后通過惟一的一輪交易做一次性移動(dòng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)從不均衡狀態(tài)過渡到均衡狀態(tài)。這些假定都是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的，他稱之為“單市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型”。針對(duì)這些缺陷，他提出“多市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型”，它假定導(dǎo)向均衡的交換以不同的價(jià)格連續(xù)發(fā)生，并且在任何給定時(shí)點(diǎn)上，不同經(jīng)營(yíng)者作用的價(jià)格不必是同一的，在“可分配剩余”的驅(qū)動(dòng)下，每一次交易都趨近均衡。

阿萊的“多市場(chǎng)模型”較之于“單市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型”更接近現(xiàn)實(shí)，更一般化，不僅涵蘊(yùn)了存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和不存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的所有可能的市場(chǎng)形態(tài)，也能像描述西方國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)那樣描述東方國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)，而且其描述是動(dòng)態(tài)的。由于阿萊把私人分散的、自由尋求和實(shí)現(xiàn)剩余看做是實(shí)現(xiàn)最大效率狀態(tài)的基本途徑，因此在政策主張上極力反對(duì)凱恩斯主義的政府干預(yù)。

阿萊悖論

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，尤其是作基礎(chǔ)理論的微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，按馬歇爾的定義，應(yīng)該解釋人們的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為。但在經(jīng)典的理論中，卻無法說明如下的現(xiàn)象：為什么人們會(huì)不辭辛苦，跑到一家僻遠(yuǎn)的小雜鋪店里，在一件價(jià)碼很小的貨物上為省幾塊錢而錙銖必爭(zhēng)，但對(duì)距離同樣遠(yuǎn)的一家超市提供的金額相同的幾元錢的打折卻無動(dòng)于衷？為什么人們?cè)谫I保險(xiǎn)時(shí)，會(huì)買價(jià)格較貴的小額保險(xiǎn)，而不太愿買價(jià)格較便宜的大額保單？為什么在股市上，投資者會(huì)對(duì)短線的利好消息反應(yīng)過度，從而導(dǎo)致股價(jià)的過度敏感？

這一系列現(xiàn)象都涉及人們的基本行為，尤其是面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)人們決策的基本行為。傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)基于馮·諾伊曼和摩根斯坦1944年的理論，認(rèn)為人們?cè)诿媾R風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)是追求期望效用極大化的。這常被用來解釋人們?cè)诠墒猩蠈?duì)不同股票或不同投資機(jī)會(huì)的選擇。

但早在二十世紀(jì)五十年代，阿萊就通過一系列可控實(shí)驗(yàn)，提出了著名的“阿萊悖論”，對(duì)期望效用理論構(gòu)成了挑戰(zhàn)。舉個(gè)例子，若有兩個(gè)投資機(jī)會(huì)A與B：A會(huì)穩(wěn)贏3000元；機(jī)會(huì)B會(huì)以80%概率獲4000元，20%概率得零。大多數(shù)人會(huì)選A。但再考慮投資機(jī)會(huì)C與D，C會(huì)以20%的概率獲4000元，80%的概率得零，而D會(huì)以25%的概率得3000元，75%的概率得零，這時(shí)，上述在A與B中偏好A的大多數(shù)人又會(huì)選C。但是，其實(shí)，機(jī)會(huì)D只是0．25×A，而機(jī)會(huì)C也只是0．25×B，顯然，人們?cè)贏、B之間的選擇與在C、D之間的選擇了發(fā)生了不一致。這就叫阿萊悖論。由于阿萊提出這一悖論以及與該悖論相關(guān)的對(duì)人類選擇行為的一系列研究，而獲得了1988年的諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)，然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們，包括阿萊本人，并沒有對(duì)這個(gè)悖論給出合理的令人信服的解釋。直到1979年卡尼曼和特韋爾斯基才在《計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》雜志上發(fā)表了“前景理論”一文試圖給予解釋，并因此而獲得2002年的諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)。

警示于世界金融市場(chǎng)

阿萊把世界金融體系的發(fā)展說成是“發(fā)瘋”，他認(rèn)為如今的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)已成為賭場(chǎng)，在這個(gè)賭場(chǎng)中，世界外匯市場(chǎng)每天成交2萬億美元，但真正與生產(chǎn)相關(guān)的不到3%，另外的97%則與投機(jī)活動(dòng)有關(guān)。而造就這種“虛擬性”金融資產(chǎn)的無限膨脹，是金融市場(chǎng)的畸形發(fā)展，特別是金融衍生工具的不斷出現(xiàn)和它的市場(chǎng)作用引致的。其中金融期貨起了重要的推波助瀾的作用。1848年，由82位商人發(fā)起組建了芝加哥期貨交易所，是世界上第一家商品期貨交易所。世界金融期貨的出現(xiàn)則比商品期貨晚了100多年。1972年5月，美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣市場(chǎng)首先推出了外匯期貨，此后，利率期貨、股票指數(shù)期貨等金融期貨品種相繼問世。在二十世紀(jì)八十年代，世界金融市場(chǎng)上每天只有1000多億美元的交易量，到如今則猛增了10多倍，自然是金融期貨的魔力使然。金融期貨及金融衍生工具的出現(xiàn)，本來是旨在通過套期保值而減少外匯及金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但由于它們與現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的密切關(guān)系及其特殊的游戲規(guī)則，結(jié)果成為投機(jī)者利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，操縱市場(chǎng)，從而獲取超額利潤(rùn)的杠桿和工具。這種游戲規(guī)則使那些不是把它們作為套期保值、對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的手段，而是用于套取暴利的投機(jī)者能夠輕易壟斷市場(chǎng)，能夠通過保證金杠桿巨額持倉，從而左右大市升落，使市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管的復(fù)雜性和難度無限增大。此外，包括遠(yuǎn)期交易、掉期交易和衍生工具交易在內(nèi)的期貨交易，在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中是無從體現(xiàn)的，其交易并不影響機(jī)構(gòu)本身的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)，卻在銀行賬戶上不斷進(jìn)行價(jià)值重估，創(chuàng)造虛擬資本，從而形成一種金融泡沫大起大落的惡性循環(huán)。當(dāng)然這種游戲規(guī)則最大的問題還在于它確立了投機(jī)者的合法性，到頭來投機(jī)者們代表著市場(chǎng)，代表著國(guó)際資金，市場(chǎng)管理者理所當(dāng)然要給予他們以天然的“自由度”。

1993年年底，阿萊在“費(fèi)加羅報(bào)”發(fā)表了一系列文章，在這些文章中他批評(píng)了國(guó)際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行和歐洲共同體關(guān)于世界貿(mào)易自由化的政策。例如，他尖銳地批評(píng)在世界銀行、歐洲共同體研究中使用的所謂“鄉(xiāng)村/城市——北方/南方模型”（RUNS）的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。阿萊指出了世界銀行方法論的基本錯(cuò)誤。他指出，RUNS模型和基于這個(gè)模型的研究，在科學(xué)上是不合格的。他在結(jié)論中說：“世界銀行關(guān)于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)收獲很大的預(yù)測(cè)，是為給政治政策施加影響。偽科學(xué)的面具，只能愚弄幼稚無知的人。根據(jù)這樣的結(jié)論做出代表世界千百萬人民意見的決策，豈不是可笑。世界銀行的報(bào)告，使人迷惑不解，它只為頭腦簡(jiǎn)單的教條主義和無控制的自由貿(mào)易思想所歡迎”。

改革國(guó)際貨幣體系

巨額的國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)容易造成發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫，使IMF和世界銀行等國(guó)際金融機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)成員國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)行指導(dǎo)和提供咨詢的專業(yè)能力受到考驗(yàn)。在金融全球化和金融自由化的過程中，一些國(guó)家盲目開放資本賬戶。由于國(guó)內(nèi)資本的相對(duì)短缺和金融管制、利率水平較高，一些外資尤其是一些投機(jī)性短期資本蜂擁而至。另一方面，由于國(guó)外利率低，銀行、企業(yè)便大量借入外資，甚至是短期資本，然后投入房地產(chǎn)、股票市場(chǎng)，引起房地產(chǎn)和股票價(jià)格暴漲，形成虛假繁榮。虛假繁榮的結(jié)果是嚴(yán)重誤導(dǎo)一國(guó)的財(cái)政貨幣政策，也嚴(yán)重誤導(dǎo)了IMF和世界銀行等國(guó)際金融機(jī)構(gòu)的決策，為危機(jī)埋下禍根。因而，IMF的改革勢(shì)在必行。

鑒于IMF改革勢(shì)在必行，一些國(guó)家的政府首腦財(cái)經(jīng)官員、金融專家紛紛發(fā)表自己對(duì)改革國(guó)際貨幣體系的看法或拋出自己的改革方案。其中阿萊的方案包括7個(gè)要點(diǎn)：完全放棄浮動(dòng)匯率制，代之以可調(diào)整的固定匯率制；實(shí)行可確保國(guó)際收支平衡的匯率制；禁止貨幣競(jìng)相貶值的做法；在國(guó)際上完全放棄以美元為貨幣、匯兌貨幣和儲(chǔ)備貨幣的記賬單位；將WTO和IMF合并為一個(gè)組織，成立地區(qū)性組織；禁止各大銀行為了自己的利益在外匯、股票和衍生產(chǎn)品方面從事投機(jī)活動(dòng)；通過適當(dāng)?shù)闹笖?shù)化在國(guó)際上逐步實(shí)行共同的記賬單位。

主要貢獻(xiàn)

莫里斯·阿萊在其早期的著作中做出了許多重要的貢獻(xiàn)，它們對(duì)如今的一般經(jīng)濟(jì)理論具有很大的影響。作為這類貢獻(xiàn)之一，阿萊比前人的分析更加嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)。他論述到，當(dāng)社會(huì)上沒有人能變得更好，也沒有人變得更壞時(shí)，市場(chǎng)的均衡就是有效率的。而且，當(dāng)初始資源再分配以后，任何社會(huì)上有效率的解都能通過市場(chǎng)均衡來實(shí)現(xiàn)。

阿萊的另一貢獻(xiàn)是，在其一般均衡理論模型中引入了規(guī)模報(bào)酬因素——或者稱之為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資。他還提供了一種形式，可以用于研究一個(gè)時(shí)間段的經(jīng)濟(jì)，并把資本和投資理論與一般均衡理論結(jié)合起來。

——1988年瑞典皇家科學(xué)院賀辭

主要著作

莫里斯·阿萊一生著述頗多，除獲得1988年第20屆諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)的代表作《市場(chǎng)規(guī)律研究》和《經(jīng)濟(jì)與利息》（1947）外，還有：

《微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究》（1943）；

《歐洲一體化：通向富裕之路》（1959）；

《資本稅與貨幣改革》（1977）；

《預(yù)期效用假設(shè)與阿萊悖論：關(guān)于不確定性條件下合理決策的講座及阿萊的答辯》（1979，與哈根合著）；

《資本在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的作用》（1965）；

《增長(zhǎng)與通貨膨脹》（1969）；

《一般經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡理論與最大效益：當(dāng)前的困境與新的展望》（1971）；

《健忘與興趣》（1972）和《市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的貨幣條件》（1987）等。 [ENGLISH]

KUNGL. VETENSKAPSAKADEMIEN THE ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 1988 Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences to Professor Maurice Allais, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, France,for his pioneering contributions to the theory of markets and efficient utilization of resources.

One of the principal tasks of basic research in economics is to formulate a rigorous model of equilibrium in markets and examine the efficiency of this equilibrium. The problem dates back to Adam Smith and his theory of the "invisible hand" which coordinates - to all appearances - a chaotic structure comprised of a multitude of independent and individual decisions based on self-interest. Paradoxically, this chaos gives rise to coordinated equilibria based on market prices. Firms' production decisions will correspond to consumers' planned consumption.

Adam Smith formulated his theory in the verbal and somewhat expository manner that was common in the social sciences during the latter part of the 18th century. About a hundred years later, other scholars tried to reformulate Smith's basic problems in mathematical terms. As a result, modern price theory as it emerged in the late 19th century, differed radically from previous conceptions of "just" prices or prices based exclusively on production costs for labor.

The missing link in the development of a more rigorous theory was provided in the 1870s by the French economist Léon Walras. He formulated his model ot the economic system as a large system of equations which described individuals' demand for goods and services and their supply of labor and other productive input along with firms' supply of goods and their demand for various factors of production. A set of prices which gave rise to equilibrium between supply and demand could, in fact, be regarded as a solution to this extremely large and complex system of equations. Later on, Walras's model was developed further by, among others, the Italian economist and sociologist Vilfredo Pareto. The Swedish economist Gustav Cassel formulated a somewhat simplified version which had a significant impact internationally.

The foremost contribution of Maurice Allais was made in the 1940s when he continued to develop Walras's and Pareto's work by providing increasingly rigorous mathematical formulations of market equilibrium and the efficiency properties of markets. On the basis of mathematical models of households' and firms' planning and choice, he introduced a very general formulation of the conditions for market equilibrium. Allais's two pioneering works are A la Recherche d'une Discipline Economique, published during the war in 1943, and Economie et Interet, 1947. A second edition of the first book appeared in 1952 as Traite d'Economie Pure. Each of these studies was extensive; the first comprised about 900 pages and the second approximately 800.

Traite d'Economie Pure contains a general and rigorous formulation of the two basic propositions of welfare theory. An economic situation with equilibrium prices is socially efficient in the sense that no one can become better off without someone else becoming worse off. In addition, under certain reasonable conditions, each such socially efficient situation can be achieved through redistribution of initial resources and a system of equilibrium prices. These propositions are important not only as results of basic research, but also as guidelines for planning in e.g., the public sector by means of prices (instead of direct regulation). Allais also formulated a generalization which covers the case where various kinds of returns to scale may give rise to natural monopolies. Through his analysis of market equilibrium and social efficiency, Allais laid the foundations for the school of postwar French economists who not only analyzed the conditions for efficient use of resources in large public monopolies (such as Electricité de France or SNCF, the state-owned railroad), but also in many instances applied the theory to business management.

Allais's two monumental works also contain many results which represent very early contributions in areas that were not explored until much later on. He used new mathematical methods to analyze the stability of equilibria, i.e., the conditions under which an economy - after a disturbance - will return to equilibrium through price formation. In his 1948 study, Allais anticipated important results in research which led to the modern theory of economic growth in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

Allais's distinguished contribution may, to some extent, be regarded as a parallel to two important works published around the same time in the Anglo-Saxon research community: Value and Capital (1939) by Sir John Hicks, and Foundations of Economic Analvsis (1947) by Paul A. Samuelson. Hicks was awarded the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences in 1972 and Samuelson in 1970. The similarity lies primarily in the objective of providing a comprehensive and rigorous interpretation of economic theory. The main difference is perhaps that Allais's formulation is more general and includes an analysis of, e.g. households' and firms' long-run (or intertemporal) planning. The work of Allais served as a basis for the analysis of market equilibrium and social efficiency using more advanced mathematical methods carried out by his pupil, Gerard Debreu (laureate in 1983), concurrently, and sometimes in collaboration with, Kenneth Arrow (laureate in 1972).

Allais's outstanding achievements may be characterized as basic research in economics. By his links to an older French tradition in economic research, Maurice Allais is the most prominent figure in modern economic research in France as regards basic theory and applications to public-sector planning. Even though his fundamental research has been relatively little known beyond the French-speaking sphere, Allais has had a far-reaching indirect impact through younger French economists who have been strongly influenced by his work.

Maurice Allais has also made distinguished, pioneering and often highly original contributions in other areas of economic research. At an early stage, he carried out theoretical and empirical studies on the significance and determinants of the volume of money. He was thus an initiator of monetary macrodynamic analyses. Outside of a rather small circle of economists, he is perhaps best known for his studies of risk theory and the so-called Allais paradox. He has shown that the theory of maximization of expected utility, which has been accepted for more than forty years, does not apply to many empirically realistic decisions under risk and uncertainty.

During the past two decades, Allais has tried to generalize market theory by emphasizing its dynamic aspects. The impetus for consumers' and producers' economic behavior consists of efforts to use any surpluses that may arise in an economy through previously unexploited exchange opportunities. Equilibrium is reached when these surpluses have been exhausted. Allais summarized many of his early and more recent research contributions in La Theorie Générale des Surplus (1981).

The sum ot Allais's productive achievements in economic theory is considerable. Moreover, he has carried out various applied studies in, e.g., operations research and has participated extensively in debates in the French press. Alongside his accomplishments as an economist, Allais has published studies in history and physics, particularly geophysics.